Financial Markets: Increasing Complexity, Maintaining Stability

3–5 July 2019, ST. PETERSBURG


Programme


.
4 July

11:50–13:00

Angleterre Hotel, Conference hall 7 (first floor)
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Session 2.1: Challenges for the EME Central Banks’ Policies Amid Global Uncertainty Emerging markets have been caught between a rock and a hard place of the Fed’s policy normalisation and the global economic slowdown amplified by t...
Emerging markets have been caught between a rock and a hard place of the Fed’s policy normalisation and the global economic slowdown amplified by trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. What is the optimal monetary policy for emerging markets’ central banks? How flexible should their decision-making be? Which instruments could complement the traditional monetary policy toolkit?
Moderator
Lubomir Mitov, Consultant, World Bank
Speakers
Stephen Cecchetti, Professor of International Economics, Brandeis International Business School
Iikka Korhonen, Head of Research, Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Guillermo Ortiz, Partner, Board Member, BTG Pactual
Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of Supervisory Board, Moscow Exchange; Chairman of the Board of the Directors, PJSC ‘SFI'

14:30–15:40

Angleterre Hotel, Conference hall 7 (first floor)
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Session 2.2: Interaction Between Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy After the global financial crisis, financial market regulators have agreed that consistent implementation of policies aimed at reducing systemic ri...
After the global financial crisis, financial market regulators have agreed that consistent implementation of policies aimed at reducing systemic risks (macroprudential policies) is as important as the implementation of monetary policy. It has become evident that ensuring price stability alone is not enough to prevent accumulation of imbalances in the financial system. Thus, a need for a separate branch of regulation, aimed at financial stability support, has emerged. The implementation of each of these policies is impossible without taking into account the other, as their targets can be contradictory. As a result, the regulators need to balance monetary and macroprudential policies.

Session participants will discuss a wide range of issues:
What are the specifics of macroprudential policy, which instruments are used in its implementation, and why has it been widely discussed only after the financial crisis? How does macroprudential policy aimed at ensuring financial stability correlate with monetary policy that is aimed at supporting price stability? Which of them should prevail if there are any contradictions? What are the specific features in correlation between macroprudential monetary policy in emerging markets?
Moderator
Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia
Speakers
Vincenzo La Via, Managing Director, CEO Promontory Europe and Middle East
Jesús Saurina Salas, Director General Financial Stability, Regulation and Resolution, Banco de España
Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
Mikhail Zadornov, President – Chairman of the Management Board, Otkritie FC Bank

16:00–17:10

Angleterre Hotel, Conference hall 7 (first floor)
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Session 2.3: Central Banks’ Communication as a Monetary Policy Tool Just three decades ago, the most common practice of central banks was to keep information about decision-making processes inside. The situation cha...
Just three decades ago, the most common practice of central banks was to keep information about decision-making processes inside. The situation changed recently and active communications has gradually become a crucial element of contemporary central banking.
The global experience in central bank communications under inflation targeting and current practices in different countries show that many questions remain open in this area.
One of the most debated issues is the future of monetary policy forward guidance amid the normalisation of monetary policy in advanced economies and global financial conditions. The issues of optimal transparency and expediency of publication policy rate path remain crucial. Emerging market economies face their specific conditions and challenges.These are the questions addressed at the session with representatives of central banks with a long and successful record of communication policy, researches and market analysts.
Moderator
Stephanie Flanders, Senior Executive Editor for Economics, Bloomberg News
Speakers
Michael Ehrmann, Head of the Monetary Policy Research Division, European Central Bank
Clemens Grafe, Co-Head of CEEMEA (Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa) Economics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sergey Romanchuk, Head of FX&MM Metallinvestbank; President, ACI Russia – The Financial Markets Association
Zdenek Tuma, Partner of the Management Consulting Department, KPMG Czech Republic
Alexey Zabotkin, Director, Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia

17:30–18:40

Angleterre Hotel, Conference hall 7 (first floor)
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Session 2.4: Inflation Expectations: How Do We Anchor Them? Most central banks in advanced economies pursue an inflation targeting policy. The key characteristic of this regime is that a central bank can inf...
Most central banks in advanced economies pursue an inflation targeting policy. The key characteristic of this regime is that a central bank can influence the future inflation path by managing expectations of economic agents. Therefore, the anchoring of inflation expectations, that is their response to short-term inflation shocks, is of high importance.
Data on inflation expectations are usually obtained from sociological surveys or indirect estimates of observed data. As a result, they may differ in different groups of economic agents and influence inflation in different ways.
What approaches are used to measure inflation expectations, assess their effect on inflation and determine to what extent they are anchored? How should monetary policy decision-making take inflation expectations into account?
Moderator
Miroslav Singer, Member of the Board, Generali Austria, CEE & Russia
Speakers
Andrey Lipin, Deputy Director, Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia
Armen Nurbekyan, Head of Training and Research Centre in Dilijan, Member of the Executive Committee, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia
Lyudmila Presnyakova, Head of Research Projects, InFOM
Sergey Slobodyan, Director, CERGE-EI
.
5 July

11:50–13:00

Angleterre Hotel, Conference hall 7 (first floor)
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Session 2.5: Accelerating Economic Growth in Russia Only a few countries at medium or high stages of development can deliver a steady acceleration in economic growth. Meanwhile, Russia has set such s...
Only a few countries at medium or high stages of development can deliver a steady acceleration in economic growth. Meanwhile, Russia has set such steady acceleration as a goal. Panel discussion participants will talk about drivers and enablers of quicker growth in Russia ranging from demographic trends, investments, and productivity to global value chains, investment climate, and growth incentives both at company and employee levels.
Moderator
Alexander Morozov, Director, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia
Speakers
Gabriel Di Bella, Resident Representative for Russia, IMF
Vladimir Gimpelson, Professor, Director of the Centre for Labour Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Alexander Kalinin, President, All-Russian Non-Governmental Organization of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses OPORA RUSSIA
Nikolai Kashcheev, Director, Analysis Department, Promsvyazbank
Konstantin Tserazov, Director of the Investment Business Department, Bank “Otkririe”

14:30–15:40

Angleterre Hotel, Conference hall 7 (first floor)
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Session 2.6: The Implications of the Broad Regional Diversity for the Monetary Policy Decision-Making Open borders and an increasing resource mobility in the modern world make the economic policy-driven analysis ever more global. The bottom-up analy...
Open borders and an increasing resource mobility in the modern world make the economic policy-driven analysis ever more global. The bottom-up analysis can help solve many economic puzzles and grasp nascent trends that later capture the whole system. Outcomes of regional analysis are used in decision-making in the Bank of Russia and many central banks both in large and relatively small economies. Which questions can regional analysis answer? Determining and delivering on the monetary policy target – is it sufficient to track country-average inflation or should its distribution by region, border indicators and price divergence risks be taken into account? What are the main determinants of the inflation diversity? Such information is helpful in decision-making on monetary policy, macroprudential and public policy as a whole.
Moderator
Natalia Volchkova, Assistant Professor of Economics, New Economic School (NES)
Speakers
Patricia Mosser, Director of the MPA Programme in Economic Policy Management, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Research Department, Institute of International Finance
Andrey Shulgin, Economic Adviser, Volga-Vyatka Main Branch, Bank of Russia
Andrey Sinyakov, Deputy Director, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia